BMW Reveals What’s Really Killing The Manual Gearbox

Ask any automaker why manuals are dying a slow death, and they’ll likely say it’s because people simply aren’t buying them the way they used to. That may well be true. After all, even the most diehard enthusiast can’t deny the convenience of an automatic transmission. But the situation is more nuanced than that, with several other factors also at play. Today’s cars are rolling computers packed with increasingly sophisticated driver-assistance and safety systems. As you have likely figured out by now, these are primarily designed to work with automatic transmissions.

Some of these technologies are mandated across Europe and other markets, leaving automakers with little choice. The EU is by far the world’s most heavily regulated automotive market. It’s constantly tightening the rules and requiring manufacturers to add hardware they might not otherwise include. While it’s all done in the name of safety and efficiency, there’s no denying these external pressures are further shortening the manual gearbox’s already uncertain future.

In an interview with Autocar magazine, M’s CEO, Frank van Meel, explained why manuals are becoming increasingly rare. Beyond declining demand and the growing complexity of driver-assistance and safety systems, the head of BMW’s performance division said suppliers are also moving away from producing manual gearboxes. That’s hardly surprising, considering all of these factors have created a snowball effect that’s accelerating the manual’s decline.

Mild-Hybrid Engines Are Contributing To The Manual’s Death

There’s more to it than that. Frank van Meel also pointed out that mild-hybrid systems have largely been engineered with automatic transmissions in mind. While some 48-volt mild-hybrid vehicles are still offered with a manual gearbox, most are sold exclusively with two pedals. With M’s boss specifically citing mild hybrids as another nail in the manual’s coffin, the chances of the next-generation M3 retaining its six-speed manual appear even slimmer.

As we previously reported, the G84 is believed to keep the current car’s twin-turbocharged 3.0-liter inline-six, albeit with a mild-hybrid setup. That would help secure the S58’s future, as the new M Ignite pre-chamber ignition technology alone may not be enough for the engine to comply with even stricter emissions regulations.

Still, BMW M isn’t giving up. Frank van Meel said the manual could yet defy the odds:

“The supplier base is getting smaller, and with all the driver assist systems it’s getting more difficult to disconnect the drivetrain. Then you’re disconnected from your driving assistance system as well as all the mild hybridization systems. [It] doesn’t mean it isn’t possible [to retain the 6MT]. We intend to keep the manual as long as possible.”

BMW Is Down To Just Three Manual Cars

With the Z4 no longer in production, BMW is down to just three models available with a clutch pedal. You’re limited to the M2, M3, and M4, all in rear-wheel-drive form. The coupes are believed to remain in production until mid-2029, while the sedan is bowing out next year. We remain cautiously optimistic about the manual’s future, but the M3 CS Handschalter could be the last M3 with a stick shift. If reports suggesting the G84 will be all-wheel drive only prove accurate, the manual’s days in BMW’s sports sedan are likely numbered.

Even if the M3 loses the manual, BMW still deserves credit. It would continue offering two manual-equipped models, while Audi Sport and Mercedes-AMG have long since abandoned the option altogether. The G87 M2 and G82 M4 are expected to keep their manual gearboxes until the end of their production runs. That would give enthusiasts roughly three more years to buy one. What happens after 2030, however, only BMW knows.

Source: Autocar