Everyone in the industry seems to agree that going electric is the way forward. Not just because of the fact that it may help avoid a cataclysmic scenario for the planet but also for a variety of other reasons regarding viability, maintenance and autonomous driving. Nevertheless, there are voices in the industry thinking that the discussions around electro-mobility are not exactly where they should be or anchored in reality, for that matter.
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One of these voices is BMW’s chief of product development, Mr. Klaus Frohlich. According to him, the expectations are too high compared to what real numbers show. Everyone’s banking on electric vehicles but the truth of the matter is we’ll have internal combustion engines powering our cars for many years to come. “A very optimistic scenario says 30 per cent of BMWs will be pure electric or plug-in hybrids and 70 per cent will be combustion. If you assume that, from this 30 per cent, half of them are plug-in hybrids – I have 85 per cent in my portfolio in 2030 with a combustion engine,” he said for GoAuto at Paris.
That’s an optimistic scenario and even so, the number of electric cars account for too little in the grand scheme of things. “I think the discussion about electro-mobility is a little bit irrational. But we are prepared. We already purchased … cobalt and lithium from 2025-35. We already have the second life in place for consumers or for grid stabilization, we have built these battery farms. We are prepared to deliver. But the world – Russia, Australia, a large portion of the world – they will have combustion engines for a very long time,” he added.
That’s true, for certain parts of the world, the popularity of EVs will depend on the range and in some cases, internal combustion units won’t be completely replaceable at all, at least until 2030. Sure, BMW is doing everything it can to make sure it doesn’t fall behind compared to its competitors and in that regard, they are trying to create a platform which can house all types of propulsion systems, so that they don’t have to commit to a certain type and find out they made the wrong bet. It’a careful approach which will disappoint people who want an electric 3 Series, for example, but one which will make sure BMW survives the next decades.
Having a great viable electric car isn’t just about adoption and making BMW-type margins but about being seen as a forward thinking company – a halo vehicle. I think the i8 semi does it but the I3 engine holds it back – it’s like a fast slick looking plug-in Prius. It’s like the 3 series buyer that slaps a ///M badge and thinks they’re getting M3-like performance.
i3 was planned from the get go as an urban city car, range extender was added to address (largely American) range anxiety. But again ahead of their time, the take rate was not huge so i3, like MINI & 1 Series EV test fleets before it, is prep for BMW’s impending (volume) 5th generation BEV.
He’s right. Any time I read about BMW on a green page, it is flooded with hundreds of comments about doomed “legacy” automakers because Tesla are eating their lunches. Tesla don’t even have the volume or cost competitiveness to service the global market, let alone effect an “electric revolution” (which we have no evidence is supported by the mass market, recent article suggests it will only happen via legislated mandate). A century ago electric was 1/4 of the market, ICE has evolved & improved in that time & will continue to. I live in Canada, as he mentions with Australia, Russia & others, don’t see our Trans-Canada Highway crowded with BEV charging @ imaginary stations outside Timmy’s. Thus far the revolution is science fiction.
Good points, I could not agree with you more !
Thank you! I’ve learned to avoid “green” pages, they’re not in reality. We have a LONG way to go.
All this anti-IC agitprop is coming out of Tesla’s box, mixed with DC’s hope to damage German industry. It’s all politics.
Re cataclysm: Yes, might well be, but we are heading towards a (mini-)ice age, not a warm periode. And in case it’s getting really cold I don’t want to have a battery powered car in my garage!
Average global temperature is getting warmer almost every year since many years now. There is a lot of evidence how humanity is causing this global warming / climate change. Why do you think we are heading towards a mini-ice age?
ICE will be around for a long time to come. New sales are one thing, but people seem to completely overlook the massive requirement for second hand cars. The majority of people do not buy new cars, it seems statistically highly likely that the majority of people are not driving around in new cars. Therefore, the infrastructure to support the existing and ever replenishing stock of ICE cars will remain, and the incentive to change to EV will be low. This will be the case until you can pick up a reasonably tidy 15 year old EV on eBay for <£2000. I'm not some kind of ICE Zealot, but the fact is, there is no EV offer out there that matches what can be gotten from a conventional diesel chugger.
Get the product right, get the infra structure right, give it time for market absorption, then see where we're at.
I think with the oil prices going EV sales will grow hard. But yes I agree with you that some countries will have ICE cars for a long long time. The only good thing is that most countries usually follow the EU after seeing their success, and I’m talking about counties outside of Europe. I personally would love to see more EVs but fast charging is the key for me of course with insane ranges on a single charge. They will at some point take over.