Three thousand cars. That’s all that separates BMW from Lexus at the top of the U.S. luxury market after the first quarter of 2026. BMW delivered 84,231 vehicles between January and March, down 3.9 percent from a year ago. Lexus posted 80,952, a 2.5 percent decline. Both brands lost ground, but the reasons behind each dip tell very different stories about where they’re headed.
BMW’s SUVs Are Carrying the Brand
The X3 surged 58 percent and the X5 gained 7.1 percent to 18,680 units, keeping BMW afloat while its car lineup dropped 17.3 percent. Even the 3 Series ticked up 10.2 percent to 8,189 sales — helped in part by buyers rushing to secure one before a generational redesign arrives for 2027. The 8 Series, now in its final weeks of production, outsold every quarter of 2025 combined as last-chance buyers moved quickly. Electrified vehicles are down 50 percent from a year ago after the Trump administration stripped federal EV incentives.
Lexus Is Playing a Different Game
The ES sedan — the brand’s long-running volume leader — fell by two-thirds to just 3,044 units. The fully redesigned 2026 ES is just now hitting dealerships in electric form, with the hybrid variant following in late June. In exchange, the RZ electric crossover tripled its sales to 4,456 units, a record. The NX Plug-in Hybrid hit 3,229 units, also a record. Total electrified deliveries reached 34,907 — nearly 43 percent of all Lexus sales.
The real test for both BMW and Lexus arrives over the next three months. For BMW, it’s whether the SUV engine can sustain its momentum while the car lineup transitions and electrified sales find a new floor without federal support. For Lexus, it’s whether the new ES — arriving in two waves, electric first, hybrid to follow — can recapture the volume the nameplate carried for years and convert the brand’s electrification credibility into conquest sales.
