Can BMW Fend Off The Charge of the Tesla Model 3? – PART 1

Interesting | April 18th, 2016 by 103
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We’ve all seen upcoming products being described with buzzwords like “revolutionary” and “disruptive” that later translate into something much less successful after the public actually …

We’ve all seen upcoming products being described with buzzwords like “revolutionary” and “disruptive” that later translate into something much less successful after the public actually gets a chance to experience them. I can remember the hype leading up to the launch of Dean Kamen’s Segway back in 2001 when Amazon’s founder Jeff Bezos boldly predicted, “Cities would be built around (it).”

While the Segway has enjoyed some success, it never really penetrated the market much beyond specialized uses, like transportation for police departments, guided tours, and theme parks. On the other side of the coin we can look at what the evolution of the cellular phone has done for communication, and what the digital camera has done for photography and the film industry. Both products revolutionized their respective industries and left titans in bankruptcy before they even saw it coming. Electric cars have the potential to do the same thing to the auto industry, and we may just be on the precipice of such an event.

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For the past few years, many people have wondered which side of history Tesla Motors will be on in ten or twenty years. Will Tesla revolutionize the automobile and lead the charge to electrification, or will they be a forgotten footnote like so many other companies that have tried to do something special and failed? The auto industry is probably the toughest one to penetrate, proven by the fact that the last American automobile manufacturer to succeed was Chrysler Motors, which started in 1928. Since then, every volume auto manufacturer that started in the US has failed, except for Tesla.

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People camped out in lines many hours before the Tesla stores opened for Model 3 reservations on March 31st

It’s worth noting that Tesla has yet to turn a profit, and in fact is losing hundreds of millions of dollars every year. So they haven’t really “made it” just yet, in fact they still have a way to go. However the prospects of that happening just got much better, better than even the most optimistic Tesla analyst had even imagined. One week after opening the reservation process for Telsa’s next offering, the Model 3, Elon Musk and company had received over 325,000 reservations. By the end of the second week, reservations were at about 400,000.

READ ALSO: Tesla Model 3 Unveil

Reservation holders eagerly plunked down a $1,000 (refundable) deposit to be one of the first to own the car Tesla has been talking about since their inception. This is the electric car from Tesla that is supposed to be affordable (under $30,000 after incentives), have a long range (over 200 miles per charge) can recharge quickly (at one of thousands of Supercharger stations) and is also desirable (fun, fast & stylish). Some Tesla stores had people lining up hours before the 10:00 am opening on March 31st, with hundreds of people waiting to reserve a vehicle that they hadn’t yet seen, didn’t know the exact price, or exactly when it would be available. It wasn’t until 8:30 pm that day that Tesla actually revealed the vehicle and since then reservations have continued to come in at an unrelenting pace.

Tesla has announced the base Model 3 will start at $35,000, and Musk has said he expects the average Model 3 to sell for roughly $42,000 with options. Personally, I expect the average Model 3 sale to be closer to $50,000, because I’m sure most will want Supercharging (likely not included in the base price), plus expensive options like a larger battery, dual motors, and at least a few other optional goodies. Even if we use Elon’s prediction of $42,000 per vehicle, if all of the current reservations were to convert into actual deliveries, that would add up to $16,800,000,000 in sales in just about two weeks. Of course that won’t happen, and many reservations for one reason or another won’t convert. Even if only 50% (about what I expect) actually wait it out and order the vehicle, that’s over eight billion dollars in sales in the first couple weeks. The automobile industry has never seen anything like this. It’s more like the hysteria created over the next iPhone than it is about any previous new car offering.

The lines at Short Hills Mall stretched from the Tesla store all the way out into the parking lot!

The lines at Short Hills Mall stretched from the Tesla store all the way out into the parking lot!

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I arrived at the Mall at Short Hills, in Short Hills, New Jersey at 9:30 am on the day reservations opened and was shocked to see the line stretch across half of the mall, down a corridor and out of the building. I expected a couple dozen people, but there were 200 to 300 there people at that point, a half hour before the reservation process opened up. I met a friend and current Tesla owner Michael Thwaite there, and he had just walked along the line of people waiting, asking them if they currently drive an EV or if they had owned one in the past. The results of his informal survey were that about 90% of the people waiting didn’t currently drive an EV, and the Model 3 will be their first car with a plug.

So these weren’t hardened EV supporters; the vast majority of people there were new to electric cars, and still they were willing to wait for hours on line for a car they won’t actually get for roughly two years. So does it mean that Tesla has made it? Certainly not, they still have a lot of work in front of them. They still need to get their battery factory, the Gigafactory in Nevada open and churning out millions of battery cells. They still need to retool their Nummi plant in Fremont, California for the high production Model 3 line and then scale up like they never have before.

Many industry insiders will still say they won’t be able to do it, that this will be the challenge that Tesla cannot meet and if they fail to produce a high quality vehicle in large volume it will be their undoing. The funny thing about that is I’ve been hearing this for five years now. I’ve talked with executives from just about every major OEM, and as recent as only a few years ago nobody even gave Tesla a chance. They laughed at the Supercharger network and how Tesla would need to spend hundreds of millions to build and maintain it. Tesla now has over 3,600 Supercharger stations worldwide and expects to have over 7,000 by the end of 2017. This network is unrivaled in the industry. Every other automobile manufacturer is either hoping EV infrastructure matures, or is just mildly getting involved by subsidizing regional infrastructure projects.  However, they aren’t willing to commit to own or manage the stations as Tesla does to ensure that the stations are strategically located and operational when customers need them.

The Supercharger network is only one example of something the industry has been saying Tesla can’t do. Another example is the direct sales model. While Tesla has had difficulty in some states because of archaic dealer franchise laws, they are still selling their cars throughout most of the US without issue. This is something many thought wouldn’t be possible. Then there are the sales of the Model S, Tesla’s first volume offering which has been available for a little over three years now. Many people were doubtful it could compete with the large luxury sedans it would be priced against, cars like the Mercedes S Class, the BMW 7-Series, Audi A7 and the Lexus LS. After all, these vehicles have had decades to build a following of brand loyal enthusiasts. How many people would be willing to plunk down $80,000 to $130,000 for a car from a new manufacturer with no company history, dealerships or in many cases service centers within driving distance?

Well, the Model S hasn’t just been competitive in this class, it is dominating it. Comparing 2014 and 2015 US sales in this class, Tesla had a 51% increase from 16,689 vehicles to 25,202. During that same period, sales for every single competitor in this segment were down, while the total for the entire segment remained about the same. The Model S didn’t necessarily bring new buyers to the segment; instead it took sales from the established competition already there.

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So what does this mean? First, don’t bet against Tesla. Tesla has been beating the odds all along. Despite being told they can’t do it, they just keep plugging along (pun intended), winning awards and accolades, extending their proprietary network of high-speed chargers and building a fervently loyal following. Musk has repeatedly said the Model 3 will compete head on with the BMW 3-Series. The 3-Series has been the benchmark for the entry level, premium sport sedan market for decades. It’s the king of the hill in that segment and BMW’s bread & butter. BMW sells about 100,000 of them per year in the US – and it’s the only car in the class to eclipse the 100k mark per year, domestically.  Now think back to the 400,000 Model 3 reservations Tesla accepted in two weeks. Even if half of those reservations cancel, the Model 3 will not only outsell the benchmark of its class it its first year, but it will likely sell more than double its closest competitor in the segment. That’s provided Tesla can scale up to meet demand of course, and while it’s unlikely that they will have the capacity to make 200,000 Model 3s in the first year, they will be severely cutting into the sales of competing cars in this segment.

If the Model 3 does to this segment what the Model S did to the competitors in its segment, the shock waves will be felt through the entire industry.  Who’s to say Tesla won’t do it again in the other segments? The Model 3 looks to be a formidable competitor so the only answer is for the competition to also step it up. The established OEMs must bring exciting, long range and affordable electric vehicles to market or they are being the next Polaroid or Kodak. No, they aren’t too big to fail, and yes, it can happen. It’s impossible for the premium brand automakers to disregard Tesla any more; to do so would be corporate suicide. In fact, last week Daimler held their annual shareholders meeting in Berlin, and no less than four times they were asked by concerned shareholders why they didn’t have an answer for Tesla.

However, before we crown Tesla the new champion of the auto industry, we need to realize the other OEMs haven’t exactly been sitting on their hands for the past half a decade. They have all, to some degree or another, been working on electric vehicle programs, and they all have the resources to get up to speed quickly. BMW is probably positioned better than any other premium brand, as they have poured billions into the sub brand BMW i, which already has the BMW i3 & BMW i8. But as good as the i3 is today, it won’t be good enough to compete head to head with the Model 3 in 2018 unless BMW were to triple the current range and also reduce the current cost, neither of which is likely to happen.

So is BMW the walking dead without an answer for the Model 3? No, not even close, but they do have a lot of work to do. Now that Musk has showed his hand they know where they need to be in 2 to 3 years. In part two of this post I’ll lay out my plan for BMW, which will ensure they aren’t left behind and wondering, “How’d that happen?” I’ll discuss my recommendations for BMW’s entire plug in strategy, from the next generation i3 to the iPerformance PHEV line. However the real weapon will be the rumored (upcoming) i5. If BMW has any chance of retaining many the customers who plan to turn in their 3-Series for the Model 3 when it’s available, the i5 will be what keeps them from defecting to Tesla, and in part two I’ll design the car they need to bring to market sometime in 2018 to keep them relevant in this segment.

Now realize in the time it took you to read this article Tesla has likely accepted about 100 more Model 3 reservations. Sometimes I wonder if the legacy OEMs really understand what’s happening here.

[Source: bmwi3blogspot]

103 responses to “Can BMW Fend Off The Charge of the Tesla Model 3? – PART 1”

  1. John says:

    BMW can barely keep their websites working, let alone steal Tesla’s thunder.

  2. johnbl says:

    BMW is carrying the yoke of its dealership network and will never compete with Tesla until they resolve that .. curious to see if part 2 addresses how they get out from under it…

    • Tommolog says:

      I agree there is a disconnect with dealership and electric vehicles – for the most part. Yes, I’m going to mention that in Part 2 and offer some thoughts on what they can do improve it. However, understand that the manufacturers are restricted in what they can do and what they can force onto their dealer network. There are laws that prevent OEMs from meddling too much into the dealers business – even if it’s for their own good!

      • EQ says:

        Tesla are threatening to go to federal court rather than haggle with the 6 remaining holdout States, dealership issue is far from resolved for any manufacturer.

    • sklancha says:

      Unfortunately BMW and others will carry the burden of franchise agreements, which explicitly state all updates have to happen at the dealership/authorized service station.
      But the haggling might be a good thing for some. BMW could undercut Tesla merely by selling their EV’S at 0 profit, letting the profit be the responsibility of the gas cars. Tesla has zero wiggle room.

      • johnbl says:

        Unfortunate is right .. ah the yoke tightens all updates at dealerships ..now I see so they can take advantage of BMW customers. My local service guy saw no need for wheel alignment, and if he had to his charge would have been $75.

        I had to haggle for two hours to get $5K off the sticker price for my BEV i3 and the only wedge I had is that our town has 3 BMW dealers. Thanks to Tesla that is a thing of the past for me.

        First other auto makers will have to come out with a BEV car that can match TSLA for ingenuity, performance, innovation and styling…and get a supercharger network in place. BMW is now wasting time, personnel and money on fuel cell technology. I doubt we’ll see a Model 3 competitive car over the next 5 years even with all of TSLA’s EV patents available…they just can’t and don’t get it.

      • EQ says:

        You are making Tesla & dealers sound like they are Trumpf & the GOP: nobody wins, & u r right.

  3. Jim says:

    Get ready for attack of the tesla fanboys

    • Darko says:

      No need for attacks. The market will do that. How many BMW series 3 cars are replaced by 400,000 model 3 reservations?

      • EQ says:

        Cars or deposits? Reality or speculation? When will that 400,000th deposit take delivery? A BMW 3 may be the closest thing to a Model 3 he (or anyone) ever sees.

        • johnbl says:

          The Model S just eat up 12K purchases of other “luxury” cars, and Tom failed to include the Series 5 decline of 13% or -5,300 sale (as of YTD Sept. 2015)..so there you have TSLA 51% + market share increase. All other other makers see the writing on the wall..lets watch the April EV sales numbers…we’ll have our first hint..and I don’t think they are going to be pretty.

          • EQ says:

            How many new car manufacturers have failed in the last century? We have to wait a decade to debate Tesla’s viability, get back to me then. Elon doesn’t have to worry, he’ll escape to spaceX or on the hyperloop.

          • johnbl says:

            We are going to see auto makers fail in the next ten years but I doubt TSLA will not be one of them…we are moving into a new era of personal transportation and the ICE will be the horse drawn carriage of the early 19th century.

            “By the early 1910’s, the number of automobiles had surpassed the number of buggies, but their use continued well into the 1920’s in out of the way places”

            Watch history repeat itself just 100 years later!

          • EQ says:

            Apart from delusion & mass hysteria, what are you basing this misplaced (possibly) optimism on? Tesla can not be debated for a decade. If we (& they) are still here.

          • johnbl says:

            I basing my optimism on the facts ..he started BEV development just five years ago, first mass produced Lithium battery car, established a super charger network across the world, has enormous sales growth over other all other auto makers, just received 400K deposits on a product still in development (NEVER DONE BEFORE BY ANYBODY), and just landed a rocket’s spent first stage on an ocean platform. Why are you unable to appreciate these unheard of accomplishments, and not see their import for the future?

          • EQ says:

            I’m old so I’ve seen this before, repeatedly. I’ll believe it when I see it. If & when. Visionary & delusional can be a fine line. Ask John DeLorean, Malcolm Bricklin, Preston Tucker & countless others.

          • johnbl says:

            See there you go again..age has nothing to do with it I’ll be 75 when I get my Model 3…and you really don’t want me to start listing the visionaries who have change the world..then it’s just a pissing contest….consider the breath and do depth of what Musk and company have accomplished…what has already happened and what is to come is unparalleled..but I found understand how some folks are unable to grasp what is happening..look at those execs at Toyota who have spent 8.8 billion on fuel cell technology and what they have to show for it….

            No one asking you to but TSLA but it would be wise to have a few shares…

          • EQ says:

            One of my great joys of old age is finding out I’m wrong, the 21st century seems to be about teaching me anything I thought I knew in the 20th is incorrect. So I hope you’re right, but only time can tell, in the interim we’ll have to agree to disagree. Also, I’m a contrarian, I wouldn’t want to own one of 400,000 identical vehicles (sort of like today’s 3 series hate).

          • EQ says:

            ps 5 is @ the end of its life cycle, of course sales are down. If the writing is on the wall, why aren’t all other other makers rushing to market with overweight, oversize, over priced generically styled luxury sedans?

      • johnbl says:

        That deposit was $1K a pop….Easy to see 300K of those deposits taking delivery.

  4. Chris says:

    I think Mercedes-Benz is in the best position. They will bring the Smart Fortwo and Forfour electric drive this year and until 2020 four(!) more premium BEV! BMW will only bring the i5 and nobody knows what kind of car it will be. The weapon of BMW is power edrive. But it’s still just a hybrid system which I don’t want…

  5. Eaton Zhou says:

    I drive a BMW but have a model 3 reserved. The problem with BMW and the rest of the industry when it comes with electric cars is that they do the bare minimum. Only when their core car business is threatened will they try harder. Tesla has the only long range charging solution with their supercharger at 120Kw, the DC “fast” charger only does 50 Kw. Tesla has a lower cost for batteries thanks in part for taking risks and spending money on vertical integration (gigafactory) while BMW and others have to wait for LG and others in Asia to develop batteries for them.

    • sklancha says:

      Eaton- I don’t think it is a lack of effort, so much as a preference to put there efforts elsewhere. Once they have their mind set that they want to have a big piece of the EV pie- they’ll have it… if they don’t wait too long.

      • Eaton Zhou says:

        As long as they can milk money off their traditional gas powered cars, there is little reason to invest so heavily in electric and that is why Tesla is far ahead.

    • Jørgen Mo says:

      the bare minimum? Tesla doesn’t even care about saving weight while BMW does it proper with carbon fiber, alu etc. As I see it, Tesla isn’t putting much effort into development, probably because of money issues compared to BMW.

      • Eaton Zhou says:

        The Model S is all aluminum. BMW can afford to go Carbon Fiber b/c the i3 isn’t a cash cow for them….more of a side project to show the world they care about electric cars. Tesla has to make money on the cars they sell b/c they don’t have profitable gas cars to cover the losses. Clearly a cost benefit analysis was done where the weight savings using carbon fiber was not as beneficial than spending that money on larger battery packs.

      • Ddk says:

        And yet the i3’s avg energy consumption is twice the Wh/kg of the Model S. In other words, the i3 is half as efficient despite using lighter weight carbon fiber.

        Weight saving materials are only part of the equation. Model S has lower drag coefficient (0.24 vs 0.29 for the i3), more efficient motors and more efficient power electronics.

        The Model 3 will have a cd of 0.21. We’ll see if it exceeds its older brother’s drivetrain efficiency

  6. CDspeed says:

    I’d love to buy another BMW electric car, but there is no telling where they are on the subject, and with mention of a future i model with a yet another optional REx generator it’s hard to tell how BMW will react.

  7. Efoza says:

    Here we go again. Another article and attempted Tesla promotion on thIs BMW site! It is all beginning to be so obvious. Stop provoking a BMW bashing frenzy. No wonder Tesla loves you, “BMW”blog!

    • Horatiu B. says:

      Wrong again. But that’s okay. Tesla is a relevant topic and no one can’t ignore it when it comes to electric cars. They push the envelope so it’s only fair to see them as benchmark. It would be foolish of us to ignore the facts and shout : BMW IS THE BEST. THERE IS NO ONE ELSE OUT THERE!

      What we do is called journalism where objectivity is very important. We’re not your little blog out of your mom’s basement, so we try to hold ourselves to high standards.

      We don’t get paid by Tesla. We don’t get cars from Tesla. Hell, we don’t even get paid by BMW. We just cover the news.

      • Tommolog says:

        Perhaps he’ll have a different opinion once part 2 is posted.

      • EQ says:

        Still think the news is accepting deposits for 4X the volume they have already produced, for a car that doesn’t exist. Good luck, Tesla.

      • Efoza says:

        Steady on! There is nothing wrong with my mom’s basement. As you say, “objectivty is very important”. So let’s keep it objective!

        Tesla is clearly a very sensitive issue here.

        • Horatiu B. says:

          Wasn’t referring to your mom’s basement, was a figure of a speech, or a stigma often given to bloggers.

        • EQ says:

          Or any where else where people are fiscally aware.

          • Efoza says:

            ‘Fiscally aware”? Are you aware that Tesla is a flop, outside of the USA? And also that, even in the US where the cult exists, it is making a huge loss? BMW did not become an ultimate driving machine by relying on such marketing short term marketing hype as that being created by Tesla.

            I personally find Teala’s intellectual dishonesty staggering and really see it come alive in posts such as this.

          • johnbl says:

            I sure hope you are wrong because right now TSLA is the only corporate entity that demonstrates a concern aboout the fossil fuel mess we’ve gotten ourselves into and it the only corp doing something about it with real and proven accomplishments. Look at TM and BMW why are they spending, or should I say wasting, so much time money and man power on fuel cell technology not for the sake of the environment…they need an EV systems that still drives profits with complicated drive systems, and to meet dealership demand..

          • EQ says:

            Most BMW models are available as hybrids, they are not selling. Elon’s accomplishments are mostly hypothetical, Tesla @ best are a boutique manufacturer. There is hope, though, BMW used to sell 500,000 units annually. aka 10X what Tesla (since I’m not a broker, not TSLA) sell now.

          • EQ says:

            #1 in Norway! TOTALLY agree w/u. The LA Times did a feature last year that Elon & his companies have received almost $5 billion dollars in gov’t. funding. I hope Tesla succeeds, or at least shakes up a bad status quo, as BMW has for 40 yrs. But when the media compare him to a cartoon character (Tony Stark!)? Way too much like Trumpf: billion dollars in debt in ’91, too big to fail, bailed out, runs for Prez. Delusional. Or, where Elon is concerned? Cultish

    • sklancha says:

      Calm down. This wasn’t bashing BMW. It is more of a prod in the right direction…. showing BMW that it’s fans WANT to see them work hard to keep them. Nothing wrong with that. We can always keep quiet, and slowly watch the defectors leave

  8. sklancha says:

    I think BMW has enough loyal customers, that they can easily hold on to most of them, if they so choose. Many [enter your brand here] customers will FIRST check if their beloved brand has what they want or need. True fans will even accept a lesser product, if it is close enough. BMW has the cashflow, the brand recognition, and the fanbase. Great start. Shoot- they can probably create a steep increase in EV sales merely by making the vehicles Supercharger capable. They already exist and are willing to share. BMW also does know how to make sexy cars.
    So, then- what is the problem? Here is my unsolicited opinion. Only two hold ups:
    1. BMW (and most other car manufacturers) did not want to make an EV that was too intriguing because it would likely lure their own customers away from their high profit margin vehicles. They just needed good enough to pacify their greenies.
    2. Tesla just won’t go away. Now that Tesla is showing that the interest is beyond the greenies, BMW is at risk of losing those customers all together.

    BMW wants to figure out how to maximize sales of their higher profit margin vehicles, minimizE defectors to Tesla and minimize movement from high profit gas to lowEr profit EV. tough line to walk. I truly believe that they can easily hold their ground if they wanted to… or if Tesla would just fail

    • Pbridge says:

      I agree my first “real car” was a BMW 3 series in the mid 80’s – I still remember if fondly it the intervening years we have had another 3 and a 5 sport wagon, But now I drive a Model S and had to buy my wife one so I could drive my car. I love the style of BMW, but I would never go back to the ICE – In 56,000 miles I have taken in my car for one “service” and still haven’t had to do anything – maybe brake pads in another 25,000 miles. Until BMW really goes all out rather than a half-assed attempt they won’t succeed in the EV market.

  9. […] Can BMW Fend Off The Charge of the Tesla Model 3? – PART 1 […]

  10. james res says:

    I drive a 3 series and consider bmw to have the best cars in the world – but I would still buy a tesla…nuff said.

  11. […] Can BMW Fend Off The Charge of the Tesla Model 3? – PART 1 […]

  12. Matt Stokes says:

    By the time Tesla start to recover money on their investment, the other players should* have all caught up. This will leave Tesla without any real USP any more and I think this is what will stifle their transition from money-bleeding U.S.-centric start-up to sustainable long term ‘proper’ global manufacturer.

    *I say should, because I can imagine some of them are simply choosing to not respond to the market until they really, really, really, have to.

  13. iDriver says:

    Thanks for another insightful article, Tom. It comes across as balanced and objective. Having been a long term BMW/MINI EV user, you can surely not be accused of any bias towards Tesla.
    Two things I believe will ultimately force BMW to accelerate on the EV front (as I do not see them moving out of concern for their customers):
    1. Tesla has fast forwarded the car industry to the future on March 31st, by proving them all wrong about the “lack of customer demand for EVs; high cost to produce long range EVs; design constraints because of the heavy, bulky batteries” – result was that the share price of BMW, Daimler, VW all took a hit of 10% right after the launch – that hurts shareholders and also executive bonuses/option plans. This is now a reality (although Model 3 will not be around for another 2 years or more) and can no longer be ignored.
    2. Dieselgate has focused public/regulators’ attention on the harmful impact of ICE cars and the mediocre way car industry execs are dealing with the issue. Even supposedly more advanced minds like Carlos Ghosn, who one day is promoting the Leaf EV and the other day writes a letter to lobby the EU for less stringent emission norms/testing?! European regulation (although still less strict than US) will force the production of zero-emission vehicles in significant volumes by 2020 the latest. This because of the combination of stricter emission caps and the introduction of real world test cycles (showing the real emissions, which are currently between 50% to 40000%, depending on the emission element and the vehicle type). Plug-in hybrids with very low electric range will not address that and making ICEs more efficient is not cost efficient anymore.

    I think BMW made a strategic mistake when they delayed the i5 that was in the works already back in 2013 under the previous CEO, and instead started launching several plug-in hybrids that in practice are used by customers as a pure ICE (just because of the short term NEDC test cycle benefit of lower CO2 emissions and resulting fiscal benefits in several markets). The second strategic mistake was to focus on hydrogen technology, and produce all kinds of rumours and promises about that. Developments in battery technology as well as charging infrastructure have made fuel cell cars completely obsolete. Only the disadvantages (also vs. current ICEs) remain. Toyota could not even get a fraction of Tesla Model 3 reservations as hand raisers before the “launch” of the Mirai (600 in ten days – according to Toyota!).

    I do hope you can convince BMW with your upcoming suggestions on what they need to do to get back into the EV game – but to be honest, I have already hedged my bets on March 31st.

    • Matt Stokes says:

      “and instead started launching several plug-in hybrids that in practice are used by customers as a pure ICE ”

      Why would they be used in practice as ICE? Average journey lengths are actually quite short (In the UK it’s less than 8 miles) so for a large number of journeys the ICE wouldn’t even fire up.

    • EQ says:

      Their existing hybrid/ev’s are not volume selling, of course they are holding back on the i5, they’re busy with their new ICE vehicles.

  14. franky_b says:

    Ok, Tom… where is part 2 now? :-)

  15. Jeff Romanowski says:

    Hell no, Tesla makes the best car hands down. No one can compete with them Not even BMW! Tesla is the new BMW of the world.

  16. johnbl says:

    Tom when you speak about disruptive technology..can you believe this morning financial headlines…”Intel (INTC) said Tuesday it plans to lay off 12,000 employees, about 11 percent of its workforce, by the middle of next year in a move to slash costs and edge away from the flagging PC business.” INTC missed the smartphone boat and they have not been able to catch up..it’s happening all round and auto makers better wake up … if 400K deposits doesn’t shake them up then what will..t

    If EQ or Efoza sits on any of those auto makers Boards then we certainly understand what the problem is…no see what’s right before their eyes.

  17. Javier Marqués says:

    How many yearly sales needs TESLA in order to make a profit to suit the current $250 share price?

    • PriceDav says:

      That’s like asking how much does Amazon’s sales need to increase for them to make a profit to support it’s $600 stock price. Your asking the wrong question. And as long as you continue to do so you’ll never get the right answer. Just like those who asked that question when Amazon’s stock price was $250. The question you might want to ask is what will Tesla’s market capitalization be if it generated $20 billon in sales and $4.5 billion in operating profit in 2020.

      • Javier Marqués says:

        Do you hold shares of Tesla? because Elon Musk needs a lot of investor like you who ask themselves “the right question”. So he can keep on make you believe things like Tesla is the next Amazon. By the way I was short in Tesla when the introduction of the Tesla 3 and I took a huge profit some weeks later.

  18. PriceDav says:

    I own a BMW i3 all electric and the range sucks, anybody that tells you they get 80mi is fooling you. Plunked down my grand for the Model 3 and will be unloading the i3 and buying a used Leaf for under 10k until my Tesla ready.

    No, BMW will not stop the Tesla bum rush. Maybe if they had launched the i3 with a 160mi range. Considering what the i3 cost I can’t help but jwonder why they gave it such poor range.

    • EQ says:

      Or why you bought it.

      • PriceDav says:

        I drank the kool aid and believed the car would perform as advertised. It hasn’t and that’s the pitfall of being a first adopter. And as such, I have a responsibility to tell unsuspecting consumers to avoid a product that is half baked, won’t meet their expectations, and will cost them money (low resale value, obsolescence) in the end.

        • EQ says:

          Guess that’s why most sell with the range extender, which majority of owners claim not to use, some first adopters understood the intent of the car as urban runabout. One reason the i8, which serves another purpose, has a different drivetrain.

          • PriceDav says:

            And that’s exactly why it’s a failure and will continue to be. The “Urban Runabout” or “City Car” marketing myth. It’s a compliance car that California mandated it have an 80mi range. BMW is not the only car company that dropped the ball here, but it’ll be most effected. The Model 3 is going to rip the BMW 3 series a new one. In fact if Tesla builds 150k in the first year it’ll sell more than the BMW 3 series. And as far as pricing, the Model 3 will cost less than a 3 series. How do i know? My i3 is in the shop right now and they gave me new 328i loaner and the sticker was in the glove box. The final cost after adding leather, infotainment, heated seats and navi, $47k. I plan on taking a picture of the sticker so when I encounter BMW fanboys like you I’ll just say BAAM! And hit you with the sticker price.

            Now to my original point, if they had given it a 160 mi range the Model 3 would not really matter that much. The i3 would be good enough. The 2017 refresh could have boosted the range to 200mi.

          • EQ says:

            Assume you’re American, as they’re the only ones who believe the global EV effort is due to one state’s legislation. i3 sells in dozens of countries, that’s a lot of compliance. If range is your issue, why not buy a diesel, hybrid, S or range extender on your own vehicle? As a fanboy, I know most BMW’s don’t sell for list. I have, however, met many first adopters who don’t do their research & end up with cars that don’t meet their needs, e.g. the M5 driver who thinks the sport model’s ride is harsh, when he should have bought a 55Oi. Why blame the manufacturer for your poor consumer choice? I assume they weren’t holding a gun to your head as you signed off?

          • PriceDav says:

            Yep, and I live in Los Angeles. And yes it is because of California’s legislation, which other countries and states follow as a model. You may not know this but California is the Car capital of the US. From my vantage point I can assure you the European automakers will be in big trouble by 2020. Tesla and Apple will eclipse the European and Japanese automakers. The basis of competition has changed and people like you don’t know it. Every i3 range extender owner I meet at charging stations laments the range and noise it makes. Many complain that they would’ve been better off buying a Volt. Now you may not understand how this hurts BMW, but those are the people who ordered the Model 3 and will never buy a BMW again. And frankly I doubt BMW can make a car like the Model 3 at that price. And if they could they would’ve done so already and the fact that they haven’t is proof they can’t. When Steve Jobs announced the iPhone he stated it was “5 years ahead of the competition”. The Model S is 8 years ahead and it was released in 2012. It has no competition, only concepts claiming to be ready by 2020. The Model 3 will be 8 years ahead of all competition, including the Chevy Bolt.

          • EQ says:

            There are so many things wrong with your assertions I cannot even begin to reply to them. Do you know what ethnocentricity is? You are as much in touch with reality as your neighbours the Kartrashians. Thank you for proving mental illness & self-medicating recreational drug use is as rampant in lalaland as ever.

          • PriceDav says:

            The truth hurts! You’ll get over it.

            And you can’t reply because what I stated is irrefutable.

          • EQ says:

            Yes, your insider knowledge of market conditions in 2020 is irrefutable. Also proof of psychosis.

          • PriceDav says:

            Bruised egos usually heal overtime. My suggestion is that you learn the causality of business success and failure. I recommend you check out Asymco.com blog, Horace does an excellent job of explaining business success and failure. Thank me later.

          • EQ says:

            Ach, nein!

          • PriceDav says:

            Ach nein:

            1) When a negative incidence has occured, this is said to imply annoyance, disgrace, worry and fear.
            Baring your teeth and grasping your head is also accomanies this comment.

          • EQ says:

            My step-grandfather was paranoid schizophrenic: LEN, ‘zat u?!

  19. […] last week’s post, we looked at the impact that Tesla’s Model S has had on the sales of competing vehicles in […]

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